El Nino, La Nina, and Capacity Performance could have an impact on demand response in PJM this summer. Let’s take a look at a few reasons why.
PJM is prepared to meet summer demand. Weather conditions are forecast to be mild, but don’t rule out emergency events.
In a May press release, PJM stated the RTO is prepared to meet the expected power demand of its more than 61 million customers this summer. The early patterns of the El Nino and La Nina cycles indicate we are expected to see milder temperatures early in the summer and hotter conditions in the late summer and early fall.
That’s not to say demand response participants shouldn’t expect an emergency event this season. PJM can still call events for smaller localized disturbances or if generation units in the region trip offline. That said, heat related calls should be minimal.
The addition of Capacity Performance (CP) on the system should help hold off PJM event calls as the Capacity Performance program requires resources to be available more often.
As usual, CPower tends to schedule the PJM mandatory test event early in the summer to ensure customers will have time to be retested in the event they under-perform. CPower customers should be on the lookout for our test event messaging.
Capacity charges on your supply bill will be higher than expected due to the Capacity Performance and the Transitional Auction.
The Base Residual Auction (BRA) set the capacity charge for customers. However, when PJM introduced Capacity Performance (CP) and adjusted their peak load by procuring 60% CP, they purchased the CP at a higher cost than the annual capacity. This will raise the total cost of capacity being allocated back to Load Serving Entities, who will in turn pass those costs along to the end user.
As always, demand response is a great way to offset increasing costs. However, the addition of Capacity Performance should result in less need for demand response resources to ensure grid reliability.
Results from the 2019/20 Base Residual Auction indicate a changing landscape and market dynamic for demand response resources in PJM.
This year’s BRA was the last that will include a seasonal or summer capacity product. Next year’s BRA for the 2020/21 delivery year will only contain the Capacity Performance product. For the 2019/20 BRA, PJM had adjusted their load forecast down to compensate for a few changes, most notably existing Energy Efficiency projects as their impact reduces the need for additional capacity.
This summer is the first to include capacity that will follow PJM’s Capacity Performance standards. Capacity Performance resources must produce electricity when called on regardless of weather conditions or extreme system conditions. Committed resources that do not perform when called upon will face significant non-performances charges. These resources were committed in a transitional capacity auction in August 2015.
To learn more about PJM’s changing market or about how to be better prepared for potential grid instability this summer, contact Dann or any member of the CPower’s PJM Team.